| 9 |  | Don't overestimates Europe's current military capabilities. Not only can Europe not defeat Russia, but even the United States cannot do so. The reasoning is simple: Europeans understand the geopolitical risks they face—on one side is Russia and even China, and on the other side is the United States. As soon as Europe attempts to defeat either of the two, it would be attacked by the other side in coordination. Nazi Germany during World War II is an example of this. Japan faces similar geopolitical issues; attacking China would inevitably provoke a strike from the United States, and attacking the United States would also bring a joint response from China and the U.S., as seen in World War II. Therefore, both Europe and Japan can only choose one side to stand with. China and the United States essentially represent two corresponding geopolitical systems, while Russia is akin to Canada, the Indochinese Peninsula resembles Mexico, and Southeast Asia is similar to South America. A military balance has formed between China and the U.S., providing the U.S. with a source of dollar replenishment and giving China a source of financial liquidity. Taiwan, in fact, is a point of leverage between the two, allowing both sides to scratch each other's backs emotionally regarding Taiwan. The idea that there must be a war between China and the U.S. is a false proposition. | 2025-09-06 00:32:53 |
| 14 |  | Regarding the population issue, we must understand three key factors: the historical patterns of human population, China's economic development model, and changes in China's population policies and their consequences. The analyst mainly focuses on factors such as the tax base and contributions from artificial intelligence technology, but these factors overlook some important variables in China, which I will elaborate on. First, historically, China’s population has decreased by more than 50% nine times due to disasters and wars. In other countries, this would have led to the extinction of the nation, but China was able to recover its population within approximately fifty years after a change of dynasty, which reflects the historical cycle. Every three hundred years, China faces problems of land consolidation, which trigger conflicts and population reduction; once a new regime is established, the land is redistributed, allowing the population to grow again. This cycle repeated until the founding of the People's Republic of China. In 1949, China's population was only 400 million, but now it has reached 1.4 billion, whereas the Soviet Union had 200 million and Japan 100 million at the time, and their populations decreased rather than increased after World War II. If China had not implemented the family planning campaign, its population would likely have reached 1.7 billion.
Additionally, we observe that the population in western China continues to grow, especially in Muslim regions where the population is rapidly increasing. Although these areas are economically backward, this does not affect birth rates. The United States has waged war in Afghanistan for twenty years, yet Afghanistan’s population has more than doubled. In Europe, the indigenous white population is declining, but the Muslim population is rapidly growing. Clearly, technological and economic development reducing birth rates is not reflected in these Muslim populations, nor in China's underdeveloped regions.
The fundamental reason for population decline and aging in China, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore is the shrinking family size, with more people becoming single individuals who rely entirely on personal income and savings, making it difficult to have children or support oneself in old age. The economic root cause is that the national currency continuously loses purchasing power due to the U.S. dollar exchange rate; China's RMB relies on exports for dollar replenishment, but domestic citizens are heavily exploited while a wealthy class thrives and moves money overseas. This is highly unfair to the Chinese populace.
Fortunately, China is a socialist country rooted in a Confucian cultural environment, where family and nation are interconnected. Population decline in the east can be supplemented by the west, aging in coastal areas can be balanced by inland regions, collective nursing homes can assist with personal eldercare difficulties, and AI serves the entire nation rather than just wealthy capitalists. Moreover, Chinese finances have never relied solely on taxation; on the contrary, state-owned assets are a cornerstone in generating national wealth and fiscal revenue, which Western countries cannot compare with. Chinese elders are also among the best at taking care of themselves globally. In the West, elderly individuals are often lonely, but in China, they participate in group activities such as square dancing, grandparents care for grandchildren at sixty, and people in their seventies care for elders in their nineties, allowing everyone to contribute their energy rather than face solitary decline.
With China's population policies fully encouraging higher birth rates, the country’s population development will inevitably break the decline trajectory seen in Japan, South Korea, and Singapore. The key reason is that Chinese people are not mere resources but followers of Confucian thought. | 2025-11-07 00:20:48 |
